2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 27, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Seattle at Dallas
Thursday 11/27 04:15 PM Eastern
2 units on Seattle +13 (-115) (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: LOSS
It has been an injury riddled season for both of these teams with each going a stint without their primary signal caller. Both Matt Hasselbeck and Tony Romo are back. Both took major dings thanks to the injuries. Seattle comes in with a 2-9 record and Dallas went from Super-Bowl shoe-in to a team fighting for a Wild Card spot. It's hard to take Seattle here, I know. But, it's the right side to be on. The squares are all over Dallas who now again seem unstoppable with Romo at the helm. Over 70% of the betting public is on Dallas as they see this game being over at halftime. Sure, a Dallas blowout here is all together possible. But, over the long haul being on the big public favorites - the apparent easy bet - is a recipe for losing. While it may be a bit hard to imagine, Seattle can certainly keep this one interesting. Hasselbeck went down in week 5, a game the Seahawks lost to the Giants. With Seneca Wallace and Charlie Frye splitting duty, the Seahawks lost four of their next five games. But they were relatively competitive, losing by an average score of just 17-21. In games in which Hasselbeck has taken all the snaps, Seattle has lost by an average of just 2 points per game. In their last three, they have lost by just 3, 6 and 2 points, so you can see this team has not quit. And, those three games were against good teams in Miami, Arizona and Washington. In fact, if you look at Seattle's schedule, it's easily been one of the league's hardest with games against the aforementioned three teams as well as Buffalo, the Giants and Tampa Bay. With Hasselbeck at QB, this offense is solid, averaging 23 points per game this season. The defense has made significant strides in the last six weeks. After getting torched for 30.2 ppg in their first five games, the Seahawks have shaved nine full points off that mark to lower the total to 21.2 ppg in their last six. While it's obvious the Cowboys can put up points in a hurry, they are not the same offense from last season. They managed just 14 against Washington in Romo's return and although they scored 35 against the Niners, they were even up in first downs at 16 apiece. The Cowboys scored on a 75-yard pass play, a safety and four FG's for 21 of their 35 points, so the points weren't coming easy against a so-so defense. The Cowboys defense is not what it was last year either. Dallas did not allow a 30-point performance against them in the last 11 from last year and this year already four teams have eclipsed the 30 point mark. Last week a weak San Francisco offense moved the ball on Dallas. In fact their 6-0 lead could have been 14-0 if they converted their two early first-and-goals. The Seahawks are still playing hard and their defense is much better than earlier and the offense is doing an adequate job. Dallas points are down on offense and the defense is giving up too much. Laying nearly two TDs with those issues is asking a lot. Another great sign for us is that despite 70%+ of the bets coming in on Dallas, this line has moved the other way which tells us the smart money is coming in on Seattle. Let the squares back the obvious choice in Dallas. We'll go the other way and back the Seahawks to hang around in this one.
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