2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 16, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

16

Seattle at Chicago

Sunday 01/16 01:00 PM Eastern

3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Seahawks have essentially won two straight playoff games. They beat the Rams in what was a "play-in" game, and last week we called the shocker over last season’s Super Bowl Champs the New Orleans Saints. The Bears won the NFC North with an 11-5 record thanks to an offense that came alive late in the season, despite just a three spot to close-out vs. the Packers in a game that really meant nothing to the Bears. Through their first 10 games on the season, the Bears offense topped out at 27 points, averaging just 19.1 points per game. The last five meaningful games saw the Bears not only exceed that 27-point marker, but scored 31 or more in three of them, averaging 28 ppg. That is a full 9-point increase in offensive production over their first 10 games. And, they did it against some of the league's best defenses including the Jets and Minnesota. They are facing one of the league's worst in this game. The Seahawks also hit a high water mark last week with 41 points, and they laid 23 on the Bears here early in the season. That was, by the way, the most points the Bears allowed to anyone over their first 10 games. The Seahawks managed 20 first downs. Matt Hasselbeck didn't have as bad of a year as most think. He threw 10 of his 17 INTs in a four-game stretch, and otherwise was good. He torched the Bears for 242 yards on 25-for-40 with no INTs, so the Seahawks are confident and should move the ball. The problem for Seattle is going to be stopping the Bears. Seattle has allowed seven straight opponents this season with a .500 record or better to score 30 or more, giving up 38.3 ppg. That makes this total look very low. Seattle is 12-4 OVER this season including 6-2 OVER on the road and 7-1 OVER vs. winning teams. Seattle is also 36-17 to the OVER in their last 53 as a road dog. And, under Lovie Smith, the Bears are 35-24 OVER as a favorite and 18-9 OVER at home off an ATS win. I like this game to sail over the total.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Seahawks 0 0 3 21 24
Bears 14 7 7 7 35

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