2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 14, 2007

This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 1:08AM ET.

14

Seattle at Chicago

Sunday 01/14 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on Chicago -8.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64)  RESULT: LOSS

Let's get this out of the way quickly: Seattle is awful. OK, maybe not awful compared to the teams staying home for the postseason. But, compared to the playoff teams still around, they are terrible. They do not deserve to be in this round. If Tony Romo doesn't botch that snap, Seattle is watching from home this week. Chicago is not without its warts and in some games this year they have looked worse than Seattle. But, the similarities begin and end there. There will be a lot of hedgers out there that will be scared to death of Chicago and particularly Rex Grossman. He has looked like an MVP quarterback in some games, and like a taxi-squad QB in others. In the end, know that despite any problems Grossman caused, Chicago won 13 games and earned home field advantage for the playoffs. What many people will forget is how many good games the Bears have put together this season. Of their 13 wins, nine have come by double digits and they have played the bulk of their schedule committing one turnover or less (9 games). Seattle in contrast completed just 3 games out of 16 with 1 turnover or less. The Bears have even fared well when they have turned the ball over, playing one of those "stinker" games. They generated just six first downs vs. Minnesota, committed five turnovers and won by 10 points! That's how good their defense can be. Yes Chicago has the potential to play bad. But this team has played more "clean" offensive games than they have bad ones. When they play those types of games, which is the majority of the time, they win by huge margins. When they play the bad offensive games, their defense is good enough to bail them out more often than not. Even on an off day, this team acan win by double-digits. Their defense has forced multiple turnovers in 13 of 16 games, so there is certainly a greater likelihood of the defense making a difference than of Grossman coughing it up. Lovie Smith is no dummy and he is not going to put Grossman in a position to lose the game. He is going to put the pressure on the Seattle offense and we don't see them competing in this one. Seattle is injured, tired, and lucky to be here. Prior to last year, this was a team known most for being horrible and fragile on the road. Last year they improved their road play. But this season they are back to their "soft" selves. They have been outscored on the road this season by 28 points. That's not exactly a recipe to win a playoff game in someone elses building. They have not beaten a single playoff team on the road this year. They were outscored by the two playoff teams they did play by 72-34! They came to Chicago and got hammered 37-6. This game has blowout written all over it. Seattle can't play with or beat Chicago unless something very out-of-the-ordinary happens. Their only chance here is if Chicago beats themselves, which as we stated above is much more of a minority proposition. The Bears should destroy a team that is not even in the same league here. Go Bears.

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