Will there be a huge game-breaker play in this game? Will one team score a long touchdown of 45 or more yards? Over the first 53 Super Bowls, a team has scored a 45+ yard touchdown 32 times (60% of the time). And, the games that didn't have a long touchdown were front-loaded in the early years. In the first 20 Super Bowls, eight of the games saw the longest touchdown remain under 45 yards. But in the last 33 Super Bowls, only 13 games have failed to produce a touchdown of 45+ yards. That's just 39% of the time. And, this game features two of the top three scoring offenses int he league. I estimate that we can expect roughly a 60% chance of winning this bet, while getting about even odds. Take the OVER on this prop bet.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2020 at 7:24PM ET.
NFL
San Francisco vs. Kansas City
February 2, 2020
6:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 4.43)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 55.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-120) (risk 2 to return 6.78)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards UNDER 36.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (-185) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (+100) (risk 1 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (+185) (risk 1.5 to return 5.17)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (-130) (risk 2 to return 5.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (-175) (risk 2 to return 5.14)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (-114) (risk 2 to return 5.75)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (-120) (risk 1.5 to return 4.25)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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