This pick was released to clients on January 29, 2020 at 7:24PM ET.
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San Francisco vs. Kansas City

February 2, 2020
img6:30 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (+100) (risk 1 to return 3)

If the first-quarter is the proverbial tortoise, the fourth quarter in the Super Bowl is the hare. More often than not, the final quarter has been a score-fest in the NFL, both in the regular season and, especially, in the Super Bowl. By the time the 4th quarter rolls around in this game, all the jitters are gone and it's no-holds-barred. The NFL league average in the fourth quarter (plus overtime) this season was 13.7 (27% higher than the first quarter). In Niners games this year, 13.7 points were scored on average in the fourth-quarter. In Chiefs games, 11.6 points were scored on average. So based on those numbers, we might expect around 12.6 points in the 4th quarter of this game this year. However, that's not the whole story. In the Super Bowl, these averages have traditionally increased - a lot. In fact, 21 of the last 32 Super Bowl games (66%) have seen the fourth quarter go OVER the posted total. Twelve years ago, the Pats and Giants combined for 21 fourth quarter points in a game in which just 31 total points were scored. Eleven years ago, after seeing just 27 points scored in the first three quarters combined, 23 points were put up in the final quarter by Arizona and Pittsburgh. Ten seasons ago, 14 points scored in the 4th quarter. Nine years ago, the Packers and Steelers put up 18 fourth quarter points. Eight years back, the Giants and Patriots only scored 6 in a rare fourth-quarter UNDER. Seven years ago, 14 points were scored by the 49ers and Ravens, going OVER the total. Six years ago was another rare UNDER (7 points scored) as the game was well out of hand with Seattle leading 36-8 going into the fourth so neither team was really pressing any more. Five seasons back, things returned to form with 14 fourth-quarter points and a resulting OVER. Four years ago we saw another rare UNDER in the fourth quarter with 11 points scored. Three years ago, the Patriots put up 19 points alone to push the fourth-quarter OVER the total. Two years ago, 19 points were scored by the Patriots and Eagles. Last season, we saw a rare UNDER with 10 points being scored, but note that the 10 fourth quarter points in the game between the Patriots and Rams represented 63% of the points scored in the entire game (16)! In this game, I think these two very prolific offenses (ranked #1 and #2 in the league in scoring) will be clicking by the fourth quarter and there's a high chance that the game will not be out of reach. With a 65% historical trend backing us, go with the OVER here in the 4th quarter.

San Francisco 49ers
Kansas City Chiefs img
consensus consensus
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