When you think about the end of a football game, what comes to mind first? If you are like most people, you thought of the winning team taking a knee in victory formation, or running out the clock by running the ball. This can often take a long time, what seems like an eternity. So how likely is it that a team scores in the waning moments of a Super Bowl? Turns out it's quite often. In 53 Super Bowls, a team has scored in the final 3:30 of the game 33 times. That comes out to 62% of the time. Fair odds on that kind of bet are -165 which is better than what the oddsmakers are offering on this prop. Good job bookmakers! But hold the presses. If we look deeper we find out that things have changed dramatically. Through Super Bowl 27, there were only 12 instances of this happening. But, in the last 26 years, it has happened 21 times for an 81% win rate. Fair odds on a bet like that are -420. With these high-scoring teams, I'm all over that at -185 odds. Take the YES.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2020 at 7:24PM ET.
San Francisco vs. Kansas City
February 2, 2020
1.5 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (-185) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 55.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-120) (risk 2 to return 6.78)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards UNDER 36.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (+100) (risk 1 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (+185) (risk 1.5 to return 5.17)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (-130) (risk 2 to return 5.54)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (-175) (risk 2 to return 5.14)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 4.43)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (-114) (risk 2 to return 5.75)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (-120) (risk 1.5 to return 4.25)
Result:
WIN
WIN
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