These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2020 at 7:24PM ET.
img NFL

San Francisco vs. Kansas City

February 2, 2020
img6:30 PM Eastern

When you think about the end of a football game, what comes to mind first? If you are like most people, you thought of the winning team taking a knee in victory formation, or running out the clock by running the ball. This can often take a long time, what seems like an eternity. So how likely is it that a team scores in the waning moments of a Super Bowl? Turns out it's quite often. In 53 Super Bowls, a team has scored in the final 3:30 of the game 33 times. That comes out to 62% of the time. Fair odds on that kind of bet are -165 which is better than what the oddsmakers are offering on this prop. Good job bookmakers! But hold the presses. If we look deeper we find out that things have changed dramatically. Through Super Bowl 27, there were only 12 instances of this happening. But, in the last 26 years, it has happened 21 times for an 81% win rate. Fair odds on a bet like that are -420. With these high-scoring teams, I'm all over that at -185 odds. Take the YES.

1.5 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (-185) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 55.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-120) (risk 2 to return 6.78)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards UNDER 36.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 14.5 (+100) (risk 1 to return 3)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (+185) (risk 1.5 to return 5.17)
Result:
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (-130) (risk 2 to return 5.54)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (-175) (risk 2 to return 5.14)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (-105) (risk 1.5 to return 4.43)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (-114) (risk 2 to return 5.75)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (-120) (risk 1.5 to return 4.25)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
San Francisco 49ers
3
7
10
0
20
Kansas City Chiefs img
7
3
0
21
31
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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