2019 Season NFL Football Past Picks
February 02, 2020
This pick was released to clients on January 29, 2020 at 7:24PM ET.
San Francisco vs. Kansas City
Sunday 02/02 06:30 PM Eastern
1.5 units on Patrick Mahomes Rushing Yards UNDER 36.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 3.81) RESULT: WIN
Who can forget the two playoff games this year and what Patrick Mahomes did to land his team in the Super Bowl. The Chiefs were down to the Texans by 24 points before Mahomes led his offense to 51 points and and a double-digit win. The next week KC was again down double-digits to the Titans before rallying back to win again by double-digits. A big part of both of those games was the amazing play of Patrick Mahomes. In those two games, he completed 66% of his passes, passed for 615 yards, 81 touchdowns with no picks and achieved a ridiculous average passer rating of 127.5. Those are Madden numbers. He also rushed for 53 yards in each game (106 total). His amazing 27 yard touchdown run at the end of the first half is solidified in bettors' memory. This guy is amazing and the betting public can't help themselves from betting the "yes" and the "over" in his props. Their recent member says he is going to have a huge day and the oddsmakers are taking advantage of that. In this case, we have a total set for rushing yards of 36.5. He just ran for 53 yards in back-to-back playoff games, so this may seem reasonable, right? Well, let's look at sample size here. Those two games do not represent what he has done in his career. And to expect a third straight game of high rushing yards is, honestly, misplaced. Let's look at a larger sample size than two games. Let's look at his career. in hi 35 NFL games, Patrick Mahomes has rushed for more than 33 yards six times. That's 17%. In this game, he is facing one of the best defenses in the league - one that has had two weeks to prepare and watch a lot of game film from the Texans and Titans games. Fair odds on an 83% winning bet are -500. So on a bet where we should be laying something closer to that, we get normal 10% vig. Take the UNDER in this prop.
|San Francisco 49ers49ers||3||7||10||0||20|
|Kansas City ChiefsChiefs||7||3||0||21||31|