2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 15, 2013

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

15

San Francisco at Tampa Bay

Sunday 12/15 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on San Francisco -4.5 (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 1.5)  RESULT: win

1 unit on Game Total OVER 40.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

Suddenly, the once 0-8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won four of their last five games. That sounds great and looks like a team that has really come on. I'm not sold, and here is why. The four wins have come against Buffalo, and Atlanta for starters. Then they caught a Miami team in the midst of the bullying debacle on a Monday night at home. They beat Detroit by 3 points, despite the fact that they had a +5 in turnovers in that game. To put that in perspective, only six teams out of 152 in the NFL since 1989 had a +5 in turnovers and lost, and the average margin is +16, so that was a lucky win. Perhaps the most telling was their loss. They were beaten 27-6 by the Carolina Panthers - a team comparable to San Francisco. The Niners are off a big win vs. Seattle last week, but won't be laying down here as they have clinched nothing, and each of their remaining three games are important. The 49ers' offense has not been very good. However, it has been terrific against teams that are .500 or worse on the season as they have tallied 226 points in those games over seven contests, good for 32.3 points per game, which is why I also like the OVER in this contest. San Francisco has played to a 7-3 mark to the OVER in their last 10 vs. a losing team. While Tampa Bay displays the inconsistencies of a poor team, they  have played five straight to the OVER after allowing 14 points or fewer in their previous game. Play on San Francisco and take the OVER.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
49ers 7 10 3 13 33
Buccaneers 0 7 0 7 14

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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