2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 19, 2014

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

19

San Francisco at Seattle

Sunday 01/19 06:30 PM Eastern

1 unit on Seattle -175 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1)  RESULT: win

0.5 unit on Game Total OVER 40.5 -102 (risk 0.5 to return 0.5)  RESULT: win

The Seahawks and 49ers meet for the third time this season, but this time for all the marbles. I am not going to try to convince you that San Francisco isn't a great team or a hot team. But, Seattle, especially in this building, is better. Let's go back to last season when Seattle embarrassed the 49ers 42-13. In that game, Colin Kaepernick threw for 231 yards on 36 attempts at 6.4 yards per attempt, but the Niners were down 42-6 and were allowed a courtesy drive scoring with 1:40 left in the game. That was the only time they found the end-zone. Fast forward to week two, once again in Seattle, and the Niners had a huge revenge motive working. It certainly didn't help them as they were beaten to a pulp once again 29-3. Kaepernick struggled in that game, going 13-28 for 107 yards, and turned the ball over four times with three INTs and a fumble. His two game total in Seattle reads 32-64, 50% completions, 338 yards, four INTs, and one meaningless TD while trailing 42-6. The good news is that the Niners ran the ball fairly well, generating 182 yards in the two games on 39 carries for 4.7 yards an attempt. They also have a healthy Michael Crabtree back for this one but he and the Niner's other possession receiver (Anquan Boldin) will likely struggle against this aggressive Seattle defense. Seattle has generated 71 points in the two recent games played at home. The second game this season, in San Francisco, was a statement game for the 49ers. If they lost again on their home turf, it would have been hard for the Niners to have confidence in any future matchup. San Francisco, with the power of revenge behind them, muddled their way to a 2-point home win. The Niners did not get into the end-zone until there were six seconds left in the third quarter. So the Niners won but not in convincing fashion, even in their own building and even with lots on the line. The fact is, Seattle has dominated this good Niners team. Although I expect the Niners to do better on offense in this one, they have yet to stop Seattle here. Home teams have done a good job in Championship games, at 46-37-3 ATS since 1970. Seattle is 37-18-1 ATS here, and has the biggest home field advantage of any team in the playoffs. Remember that if Micah Hyde did not drop an easy interception for Green Bay, the Niners would not have gotten out of the first round. Many forget because the Seattle defense seems to take the spotlight, that the Seahawks have averaged 31.3 points per game at home in their last 12 games here. San Francisco certainly has not affected that average allowing 71 in two recent games. Yes, the Seahawks offense has seemingly taken a step back of late, but with this defense, they don't need to put up gaudy numbers. Russell Wilson makes enough plays when asked of him. He rarely make mistakes and that coupled with the best running back in the league and an amazing defense and this homefield advantage, results in wins. Many think this one will be close, but that is always the case in the Championship game. But since 1970, 39 of 86 game (nearly half) have been decided by 14 points or more. And, 50 of them were won by 11 points or more, and 72% by 7 points or more. That being said 3.5 points makes this a bit more of a risky play than I want as a 3-point win could easily be the result here. Since Russell Wilson took over, the Seahawks are 16-1 at home straight-up. Make the play on the moneyline here for Seattle to advance. Also take the OVER. The Niners have scored 28.6 points per game in their last nine on the road this season while as mentioned above, Seattle has averaged over 31 points per game in their last 12 home games. Neither team will score that much with these defenses but I believe this total has been beat down too low. Since Pete Carroll arrived in Seattle, the Seahawks are 19-9 OVER vs. winning teams. Take Seattle and the OVER.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
49ers 3 7 7 0 17
Seahawks 0 3 10 10 23

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Wins Losses Units
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