2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 11, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:23PM ET.

11

San Francisco at Seattle

Sunday 12/11 04:05 PM Eastern

1 unit on Seattle -15.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)  RESULT: WIN

This game qualifies as the "line can't be big enough" game of the week. While San Francisco has had a few surprise games this year, for the most part they've been a great team to fade. They are just THAT bad. When you rank dead last in the league in both offense and defense and have a rookie quarterback, it's about as bad as it gets. I mean, there are bad teams every year but not often does at team rank worst in the league on both sides of the ball at the same time. The Niners are 2-10 and 5-7 against the number. They covered the big number against Seattle three weeks ago, losing by 2 as a 12.5 point underdog. But, that game was at home. Their 5-7 ATS record shrinks to 1-4 when we strip out their home games. As a big dog of greater than a touchdown, they are 0-3 ATS on the road. This game is such a mismatch that the spread couldn't be big enough. San Francisco is the worst team in the league while Seattle is top 5. Shaun Alexander should rack up a ton of yards and a ton of TDs. He rested most of the second half on Monday night so he'll be fresh. Letdown game for Seattle you say? I don't think so. This team is still fighting for respect. They were one dropped pass away from doing some damage in the playoffs last year so they know how important it is to keep winning here. And, by barely escaping with a 2 point win in the first matchup, how can you let down? The Seahawks qualify for a situation that hasn't come up yet this year but is 69% lifetime including 5-2 last year. That situation backs a road team that scored the most points last week and won in a blowout. One star on Seattle minus the big number.

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