2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 25, 2011

25

San Francisco at Cincinnati

Sunday 09/25 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on San Francisco PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

The Bengals were projected to be amongst the worst teams this season. They aren't as bad as most think, but they still have a ways to go. In week one vs. the Browns, rookie QB Andy Dalton got a taste of the NFL. He was given all safe passes and completed 10-for-15 but for just 81 yards. That is 5.4 yards per pass, which is not going to get it done long term. Last week he got raves for his performance against the Broncos as he went 27-41 for 332 yards and two TDs. It was quite a performance from a rookie, and now everyone thinks the Bengals have a big-time QB. What is missing from that storyline is the fact he not only did it against the No. 32 ranked defense from a year ago, but that defense was without their top two defenders Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil. Andy Dalton may prove to be a great QB, but the reality is he's not there yet and when he faces solid defenses, he will likley struggle for a while. San Francisco should be 2-0, as they let victory turn to defeat late against Dallas. The Niners can stop the run, and that will put Dalton in key third and long situations, and I don't think he will respond to the pressure. Alex Smith is coming around for the Niners, even without much from Frank Gore. I think they have the better QB in the given situation and the better defense and they are getting points. The Niners have suffered just four ATS losses in their last 18 after an ATS loss. The Bengals are coughing-up the cash as a favorite now at 6-21 ATS in their last 27. The Niners have averaged 28.5 points per game thus far and the Bengals have surprised at 24.5 per game. The last eleven times San Francisco has gone on the road after allowing 450+ yards in a game, the OVER has hit at an 11-1 mark. In their last 14 games as a small road underdog (3 points or less), the Niners are 12-2 OVER. I like San Francisco and the OVER here.

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