2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 09, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Pittsburgh at Denver

Monday 11/09 08:35 PM Eastern

5 units on Denver +3 (+100) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: LOSS

The Denver Broncos are the biggest surprise in the NFL this season. When they traded Jay Cutler in the offeseason, it looked like Denver was ready to re-tool the team and was a couple of years away from contending. But that certainly has not been the case. I don't think anyone imagined at the beginning of the season that when Pittsburgh came here in week nine, that it would be Denver entering the game with the league's top-rated defense. Denver has allowed just 266.7 yards per game, this after a No. 29-ranked finish a year ago making for one of the biggest turnarounds in NFL history. Yet, this team still gets no respect as they will be making their sixth appearance of the year as an underdog even though they own a 6-1 record, good for second best in the AFC. It helps us that they are coming off their first stinker of the year while Pitt has reeled of five straight wins. Denver's loss last week concerns some folks but not me. No team can play at the level Denver was every single week. They faced a very good Ravens team that has the potential to beat anyone, and they had an off week. If anything, that will motivate them more here to avoid dropping two straight. The Broncos have clearly been under the radar all season, and playing this one at home against last year's Super Bowl Champs is certainly not going to play with less intensity. Pittsburgh has the big name and the recent hardware, but the truth is that in 2009, this team is 1-2 on the road, allowing as many points per game as they have scored. This has been a spot in which the Broncos have excelled over the years, inclusive of this year. Denver is an amazing 19-1-1 ATS when they are playing at home as a dog, or a favorite of up to -2. This is also a spot where the Pittsburgh Steelers over the years have faltered as after a win and playing on the road as a favorite, they are 23-42-2 ATS in their last 67. The Denver defense has not allowed any team to go for over 315 yards all season long and those numbers are even more impressive when you consider they have faced the Cowboys, Chargers, Patriots, Ravens and Bengals. Three of those teams rank in the top 10 in the NFL in yards per game, and four in the top twelve. So the Broncos have played better than half their schedule against teams in the top third in the NFL in total offense, and still rank No. 1! My computer matchup for this game predicts a tight game. I agree but I give Denver a greater chance of winning. It's time to believe. We get the better team at home here getting points at home in this one and that's why I love Denver in this spot.

Steelers 0 7 7 14 28
Broncos 3 0 7 0 10



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