2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 12, 2014

This pick was released to clients on October 09, 2014 at 7:57PM ET.


Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Sunday 10/12 01:00 PM Eastern

1.5 units on Pittsburgh +108 (moneyline) (risk 1.5 to return 3.12)  RESULT: LOSS

The Cleveland Browns have been a surprising team this season - in more ways than one. They have been a lot more competitive than expected, and while it was the defense that was supposed to keep them around in games, it has been the offense doing the heavy lifting. Cleveland's offense ranks #9 in the NFL, generating 387 yards per game. The defense, however, has been killing them as it currently ranks second to last in the entire NFL. That defense may be without Joe Haden this week, and that will further hamper their defense to get stops against a Pittsburgh offense that ranks #9 in the league, producing over 400 yards per contest. The difference here is the Pittsburgh stop unit is allowing the fourth fewest yards in the league, and should be the difference in this one. The Steelers have beaten the Browns in 26 of the last 29 meetings, and here they are on the plus side of the line, and I'm not ready to buy in on the Browns at this point. Look at this contrast: Over the past three seasons, the Browns are 3-12 straight-up vs. offenses that generate 350+ yards per game. Meanwhile the Steelers are 9-2 straight-up vs. the same types of teams. And, under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are 32-14 in the division and 20-7 in October games. Cleveland spent a lot of energy last week with a late comeback, but just suppose they didn't make the big comeback last week then what would this line be? Without a doubt, they would be an underdog here. What we have is 30 minutes of football that changed the line dramatically, and now we have a false favorite. Play on Pittsburgh on the moneyline.

Steelers 3 0 0 7 10
Browns 0 21 3 7 31



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
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