These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2018 at 4:24PM ET.
img NFL

Philadelphia vs. New England

February 4, 2018
img6:30 PM Eastern

In his career, Patriots placekicker Stephen Gostkowski has kicked 388 field goals with just 42 of them coming at 48+ yards. That?s just 11%. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.9 yards. How many field goals over 47 yards has he kicked in the playoffs in his career? Zero. Philadelphia?s Jake Elliot has only kicked 31 career field goals with a very high percentage (eight) coming from a distance of 48+ yards. That gives pause for concern, but in the Super Bowl, place kickers are not used as much. Teams want to score touchdowns. Out of 51 Super Bowls, there have only been 13 games with field goals of 45+ yards (25.5%). Fair odds on that bet are -292. But has this changed recently? Maybe with the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has gone up. Actually it?s just the opposite. Over the past 13 Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45+ yards. Since Super Bowl 41, 10 of 11 Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in UNDER 45 yards. So, we have one kicker here that kicks 47+ yard field goals at an 11% rate and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely ever happens. Take the UNDER on this prop.

2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (risk 2 to return 5.82)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Philadelphia +4.5 (-105) (risk 2 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
0.5 unit on Philadelphia +175 (moneyline) (risk 0.5 to return 1.38)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48.5 +100 (risk 1 to return 2)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 9.5 (risk 2 to return 6.1)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 (risk 2 to return 5.67)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (risk 2 to return 7.5)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (risk 2 to return 5.88)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (risk 2 to return 5.18)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards (risk 1.5 to return 4.43)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Either Team Scores 3 Unanswered = YES (risk 2 to return 5.14)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (risk 2 to return 5.74)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
Philadelphia Eagles img
9
13
7
12
41
New England Patriots
3
9
14
7
33
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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