Philadelphia vs. New England

Its the Super Bowl. The two teams that made it here are deserving and great. They are probably at least relatively evenly matched. It should be a back-and-forth duke-it-out sort of affair, right? If you asked 10 of your friends whether one of the two teams will score three straight times without the other team scoring, probably seven or eight of them would say no way! Your gut tells you that this will be a close even battle the whole way. One team scoring back-to-back-to-back unanswered just isnt likely to happen, right? Thats why most people bet the NO on this prop. Its also why the oddsmakers end up shading the line. They know that they are offering great odds on the YES bet but since most of their action is on the other side, they are ok with it. That leaves a great opportunity for us to take advantage. The reality is that in 51 Super Bowls, there have been 37 games in which one or both of the teams scored three straight times unanswered during the game. That comes out to 73% of the time. Fair odds on a 73% bet are around -270. So, laying -175 on this bet has value and it should come through around three out of every four times we make it. Take the YES.