Philadelphia vs. New England

This season, an average of 8.1 points per game where scored in the first quarter of all NFL games - more than one full point less than last season. Philadelphia games this season averaged 9.5 first-quarter points while New England games averaged 9.1 first-quarter points. Average the two and we get 9.3 points which is about where this total is set. But, I believe this game will stay lower scoring in the first quarter. As the magnitude of this game continues to grow each year, the stakes only get bigger. That results in an inevitable "feeling out" process early in the game. Drew Brees was quoted as saying about this game that ?It took me to till third series to settle down." Bill Romanowski said of his Super Bowl, ?I didn?t remember first four plays." Each team has prepared meticulously but they still need some time to figure out what they can accomplish versus their opponent. Above all, they are trying to avoid big mistakes early on. Players and coaches are nervous, and tight. So the play calling, and the play on the field, tend to be conservative in the early going. In the history of the Super Bowl, the first quarter has proved to be a low scoring one as an average of 8.1 points per game has been scored. And, it's been getting lower-scoring as the game gets bigger and bigger. Seventeen of the last nineteen Super Bowls have seen 10 or fewer points scored in the first quarter. One of the years this bet went OVER the total was in 2011 but that came only thanks to a very rare pick-6 touchdown. Here are the first-quarter scores the past six years; 9, 10, 8, 0, 10, 0. The last ten years have seen an average of just 6.7 points scored in the first quarter (3, 3, 10, 14, 9, 10, 8, 0, 10, 0). You will notice two zeros in that last, including last year. The first zero came despite 52 points being scored in the game and the second zero came despite 62 points being scored in the game! The quarterbacks in those nine games: Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady (three times), Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning (three times), Drew Brees, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton, Russell Wilson (twice), and Matt Ryan. So, don?t just automatically fear Tom Brady here. Even in Super Bowl games that were expected to be very high-scoring, the first quarter has gone UNDER the total much more often than not. Nine years ago the total between the Giants and Patriots was 53.5. In that game, 3 points were scored in the first-quarter. Seven years ago, the total in the Saints-Colts game was set at 56.5. The first-quarter total went under the 10.5 line. Five years ago the total was 53.5 and the first-quarter went UNDER. Last year the total was set sky-high at 58 and the first-quarter points scored tallied a big goose egg. This game is expected to be average scoring, but history indicates that most of that scoring will come in the final three quarters after nerves have settled. And in this game, we two top-five scoring defenses. Take the first-quarter UNDER.