2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
December 11, 2011
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
Philadelphia at Miami
Sunday 12/11 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on Philadelphia PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3) RESULT: loss
The Philadelphia Eagles were supposed to be the team to beat in the NFC this season, but at 4-8 they are in the same spot as the Miami Dolphins who started at 0-7. I'm not sure a 4-8 team has ever played 10 out of 12 games as a favorite, but that is the state of the Eagles. They have had trouble holding serve when expected to win. But, they showed they can perform when the expectations sink (in their first game as a dog this season, they beat the Giants outright on the road). In the Andy Reid era, the Eagles are 50-30 ATS as an underdog (36-19 ATS on the road). The Dolphins are 4-2 in their last six games, but 6-0 ATS and have played at a higher level of late. But, in the upside down world of the NFL that isn't necessarily a good thing to come into a game hoping it will continue, because most of the time it does not. This line would have been a TD or more on the Eagles at the beginning of the season, so there is value on them here getting points. Miami has gone 0-11 ATS when revenging a loss off a 10+ point spread win. The Eagles will have Michal Vick back at QB, so the turnover machine should be shutdown here, and the Eagles offense back in gear. The Eagles are a much better team as a dog, as mentioned above, going 14-5 ATS as a road dog in their last 19. Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 9-29 ATS in their last 38 at home as a favorite. Under Tony Sparano, the Dolphins are just 10-21 ATS in home games. Take the Eagles. I also like the OVER. The Eagles have been an OVER machine as an underdog where they are 35-16 in their last 51, including 10-2 recently. Under Andy Reid, this team is 15-6 OVER on the road when the totla is set over 45. The Dolphins have only played one UNDER in their last seven as a home favorite of 3 points or less. Take Philadelphia and play the OVER here.