2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 18, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


Philadelphia at Las Vegas

Sunday 10/18 04:05 PM Eastern

2 units on Las Vegas +15.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

The Raiders are certainly a mess right now.  They come in at 1-4, with their lone win coming versus 0-5 Kansas City. The Eagles returned from their bye with an easy win over the 0-5 Bucs. This one looks too easy on the surface. After all, the Raiders were just smoked by the Giants and the Eagles figure to be an NFC Title contender. But laying 14.5 points on the road in the NFL is about as hard as it gets. These teams are certainly far apart in talent, but they are also far apart in another important category luck. The Eagles are crushing teams, but are they really as good as their stats would indicate? In their three wins (all big ones), they were the beneficiary of a 12-3 turnover margin! In the one game in which the ball didn't bounce their way (a 1-4 turnover deficit vs. New Orleans), they lost by 26 points. I'm not saying Philadelphia is a bad team, but their value is inflated due to turnovers. On the flipside, Oakland has been on the losing end of the turnover battle. In their four losses, they have coughed up the ball 12 times while getting only 6 in return. In the one game where they took care of the ball, they won. So, we see a pattern. Turnovers are hard to predict but the safest prediction for any given game is about even. And, if that happens in this game, Philly won't be quite as daunting and Oakland won't be quite as bad. Can Philly let down here? Sure. They have three consecutive division opponents awaiting them after this one and may not put forth an all-out 60 minute effort. The Eagles have displayed this "no-show" tendency with a 3-8 ATS mark vs. teams with a losing record home record. The Raiders certainly have incentive here to show up after last week's debacle. They allowed over 30 points last week and have come back off such a poor performance by covering six of eight in their next game after surrendering the dreadful 30+. They also may find some fire from Antonio Pierce's post game comments that stated publicly, the Raiders were displaying a complete lack of effort. Sometimes that is all a team needs to get up off the mat and play their best game of the year - something I wouldn't expect from the Eagles this week. This is the first time Philly has had to travel since week one - and it's a long haul to the West coast. Since 1983, underdogs of 10.5+ points that are being out-gained by 100+ yards per game off back-to-back games in which they were out-gained by 100+ yards are a stellar 25-7 ATS. I'm going with the Raiders here to stay inside this huge number at home.

Eagles 3 3 0 3 9
Raiders 7 3 0 3 13



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