Philadelphia at Green Bay

Philadelphia is well-coached, and the defense is playing great allowing 21, 9, 27, 22, and 23 points in five straight games. Pro Bowl tight end Zach Ertz is back after missing the past five games with an ankle injury. They have been an underdog this big two other times this season and won at San Francisco, 25-20, and lost to Baltimore, 30-28, as a +10 dog. Green Bay's defense has allowed 34 and 25 points the last two games and is getting overvalued by oddsmakers, failing to cover four of their last seven, including a 1-2 ATS run at home. The road team has covered five of six when these teams clash, and this shapes up as a close one. Play Philadelphia.