2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 09, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

09

Philadelphia at Dallas

Saturday 01/09 08:00 PM Eastern

5 units on Philadelphia +4 (-110) (risk 5 to return 5)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Game Total UNDER 46 -105 (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

3 units on Philadelphia +170 (moneyline) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: loss

The Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo finally ended the incessant talk of their annual December demise. They won their last three games by a combined score of 65-17. They finished the season with an exclamation point, ending New Orleans' run at a winning season, shutting out the Redskins, and dismantling this Eagles team 24-0 last week. The Cowboys swept the Eagles during the regular season, and they are playing as well as anyone. How can they possibly lose here? It certainly is a difficult task to beat an opponent three times in the same season, especially when the teams are on equal footing. This is a new season, and one in which the Dallas Cowboys and Tony Romo have had no success to build on. While overall  the Eagles looked bad last week, there were a couple things that happened in that last matchup that gives Philly backers something to hang their hat on. McNabb overthrew a sure TD pass to DeSean Jackson, and threw another behind Maclin. What could of been two huge plays that could have changed the game turned into nothing. The Eagles seem to play their best football when their doubters grow in numbers, and that is the case after their whitewash in Big D last week. McNabb has been at his best after a loss where he is 24-12 ATS in his last 36, and the Eagles are 64-39 ATS against NFC opponents in their last 103 games. Nothing is more motivating to a team than being shutout, so I expect Philadelphia will bring an emotional edge into this game. The Dallas defense is playing at a high level, but the offense has scored just 18 points per game over the last eight weeks. The Eagles can score in bunches and if they get going here, Dallas offense may struggle to keep up. The Eagles are 18-9 ATS vs. conference foes the past two seasons and 51-27 ATS in their last 78 games seeking revenge. That includes a 14-4 ATS mark on the road revenging a road loss. They are also 18-4 ATS in their last 22 following a loss by 21+ points. With Andy Reid at the helm, Philly 59-35 ATS on the road and 46-26 ATS as an underdog including 26-12 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. They are also 41-24 ATS under Reid following a loss. Philly is just as good as Dallas and thanks to the outcome from last game, I feel they have the emotional edge here so I'll back them to keep this close. I also like the UNDER. If history holds, this game is going to tight and low scoring as four of the last five meetings in Dallas have failed to reach the total. While going 6-2 OVER at home, Philly is 4-4 O/U on the road and Dallas is 5-3 UNDER this season at home and 4-2 UNDER in division games. The Eagles are 13-4 UNDER in their last 17 revenging a loss by 14+ points. They are 17-5 UNDER in their last 22 when coming off a double-digit loss. And, under Andy Reid, they are 23-13 UNDER on the road vs. division foes. After losing by 24 last game, I expect a renewed defensive effort by the Eagles. I like the Eagles in a tight, low-scoring game.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Eagles 0 7 0 7 14
Cowboys 0 27 7 0 34

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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