2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 03, 2004

This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 3:23PM ET.


Philadelphia at Chicago

Sunday 10/03 01:00 PM Eastern

2 units on Chicago +9 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: loss

2 units on Chicago +320 (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 8.4)  RESULT: loss

Beautiful set-up here. The Eagles can't be beat, right? Donovan is the best QB in the league again, right? Donovan to T.O. is unstoppable! Boy, short memory. Didn't this Bears team upset Green Bay as a 9 point dog a couple of weeks ago? Yeah, I thought they did. Philly will be taking this game lightly while the Bears know they have a shot in any game. Yes, Rex Grossman is out and Jonathan Quinn (who?) is in. But this team isn't about Grossman. It's about Thomas Jones and the 4th best running game in the league. This pick is less about the statistical strengths and weaknesses of these teams and more about the situation. Home underdogs of 7+ have historically covered about 62% of the time but have done so at a 70% clip over the past three years. Also, dogs off a fairly close loss facing a team off two big wins cover the spread 71% of the time. We were on Chicago two weeks ago when they upset the Packers and we'll go with them again this week. One unit on Chicago at +9 and one unit (admiteddly somewhat of a flyer) on the Bears to win the game.



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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