2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 23, 2011

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

23

New York at Pittsburgh

Sunday 01/23 06:30 PM Eastern

3 units on New York PICK () (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: LOSS

The Jets have not made a Superbowl appearance since 1969 when Joe Willie Namath predicted a win for the Jets as a huge underdog in Super Bowl III. Rex Ryan has staked his claim next to Broadway Joe last week by making an audacious prediction and backing it up with a monster win in Foxboro. Their progression towards the Super Bowl won't be easy as they take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, who will be making a record 15th appearance in the Championship game since the merger of the AFL and NFL before the 1970 season. The Steelers own six Superbowl titles including on in 2009 by a team that resembles the one playing in this game very closely. The Jets are in a role that has seen them at their best - as an underdog. They have now gone 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games posted as a dog including a 9-4 straight-up mark under Rex Ryan. One of those underdog wins came right here in Pittsburgh this season where the Jets, as a 3.5 point underdog in week 15, knocing off the Steelers at 22-17. Pittsburgh's biggest strength of course is their league-leading defense. While Pittsburgh has dominated the opponents' running games, they have shown at times to be leaky defending the pass. They are ranked 12th in the league in pass defense (six spots below New York). Mark Sanchez was 19-9 for 170 yards in the game earlier this season and the Jets did find some running room with 106 yards on 27 carries. So I don't expect Pittsburgh will be able to keep the Jets out of the endzone in this game. The Steelers have not been what you would think vs. teams that made the playoffs this year. While Pittsburgh dominated the weak teams on their schedule, they played to a 3-4 record vs. playoff teams and their biggest margin against any of them was the 7 points (last week vs. Baltimore). They had a combined negative 15-point scoring margin vs. these teams this year! Perhaps the biggest concern here for Pittsbrugh will be the blitzing schemes of the NY Jets. Pittsburgh QB's were dropped 25 times in the seven games vs. playoff teams this year and the Jets had success vs. Brady last week. New York certainly has the defense to compete here as they are ranked #3 against the rush, #6 vs. the pass and #3 overall. They have faced arguably the two best QB's in football the past two weeks and held them to a combined 38 points.  And that includes a gimme 7 points vs. New England at the end of the game when they were up by two scores. They held Green Bay and another top 5 QB in Aaron Rodgers to 9 points earlier this season and they kep Pittsburgh to 17. The Jets are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a winning record. They have beaten Manning, Brady and Rivers the last two years in the playoffs on the road. They also, as mentioned above, held Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers out of the endzone. The Jets are a team on a mission. They have lots of confidence and they have what it takes to win this game outright (which is worth a play at +175 by the way if you are so inclined). I like them getting over a field goal here and I'm on the Jets plus the points.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Jets 0 3 7 9 19
Steelers 7 17 0 0 24

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Wins Losses Units
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