2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 12, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.


New York at Pittsburgh

Sunday 12/12 04:05 PM Eastern

3 units on New York +6 (-110) (risk 3 to return 5.73)  RESULT: LOSS

The marquee matchup of the week featuring quarterbacks from that perennial QB-factory: the MAC conference. Other similarities here between these two clubs: great running games and tough defenses. I've been a big fan of Pittsburgh this year and we've made some bank by backing them. But, I like the Jets to keep it close in this spot. Here's why: First, the Jets need this game more. They are fighting for their playoff lives while Pittsburgh is already in. Yes, Pitt needs to keep winning to keep their home-field chances alive but survival is the ultimate motivator. Simply put, this is the most important game of the year for the Jets. It's a big test for them and they'll be ready. Statistically, the Jets have the better offense and allows fewer points per game while Pitt has the advantage on defense from a yardage perspective. The Jets are allowing only 14.6 points per game and they've held their last three opponents to a touchdown or less. Pittsburgh has slowed a bit as of late as their high-potent offense has dropped to just 17 points per game and 252 yards yards over their last three. The absence of Plaxico Burress (hurting again this week) has hurt Roethlisberger's production. Overall, Pittsburgh is the better team but I don't think they should be laying this many points in this situation. The spread is six. The Jets have lost 3 games thus far this season: on the road in New England by 6, away at Buffalo (without Pennington) by 5 and vs. Baltimore (without Pennington again) by 3. So, they haven't lost by this much, save the game on the road against the 11-1 Super Bowl champs. They now have Pennington back and a lot to play for. Give me the motivated team with the stingiest defense in the NFL and six points. Three star pick: J-E-T-S-Jets-Jets-Jets.



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

Premium Picks Available Now

with detailed analysis