2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 16, 2014

This pick was released to clients on October 15, 2014 at 1:15PM ET.


New York at New England

Thursday 10/16 08:25 PM Eastern

1 unit on New England -9.5 (-103) (risk 1 to return 1.97)  RESULT: LOSS

The New York Jets opened the season with a positive win against Oakland, but we know how good Oakland is. Since that opening game winner, the Jets have dropped five straight and look like a team in shambles. Now they take to the road on short rest to face a hot team in New England. The Pats have put up 80 points the past two weeks as they seemed to have solved their offensive line woes, at least for now. The Jets' defense has allowed 24 points or more in all of the five losses, while the pedestrian offense has scored 24 or fewer in each game. After some lackluster games and many surmising that Brady may be at the 18th green, the Pats have changed their tune as the future Hall of Famer has led the Patriots to a pair of dog wins, scoring an average of 40 points per game. The defense remains strong, allowing the fifth fewest yards per game in the league, and that combination has the Jets, on short rest, in big trouble. Geno Smith has thrown for more INTs than TD passes, and is -10 in his career in that category. Clearly Rex Ryan has no confidence in him, but he realized last week that Michael Vick is even a worse option (he's 8-for-20 on the season at 2.4 yards per attempt). So Ryan is left with the lesser of two evils and will trumpet out Geno Smith and his league-low passer rating of 69.7 here in hostile territory under the bright lights. The Pats' offense, once it gets in motion, tends to stay in motion as they are 70-31-2 ATS in their last 103 games when following a game in which they gained over 350 total yards. In the Belichick era, the Patriots are 62-41 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 point range, 54-35 ATS in division games and 43-30 ATS vs. losing teams. With the Pats averaging 30 points per game at home, and the Jets averaging just 12 on the road, this big number is one that New England should be able to cover. Take the Patriots minus the points.

Jets 6 6 7 6 25
Patriots 7 10 3 7 27



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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