2006 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 07, 2007
This pick was released to clients on July 31, 2012 at 1:07AM ET.
New York at New England
Sunday 01/07 01:00 PM Eastern
5 units on New England -8.5 (-110) (risk 5 to return 9.55) RESULT: WIN
The Jets have had one of those overachieving seasons. While we predicted in August that they would eclipse the 6-win mark, we didn't think they'd win 10 games and make it to the playoffs in the tough AFC. They got here through great coaching and better-than-expected QB play. They also benefited from a very soft schedule. New England is like ole-man river - they just keep rolling along. A team that was inundated with injuries yet again found a way to finish 12-4. Most people, if asked, wouldn't consider this one of Belichick's best teams. But 12-4 is hard to sniff at. Also, if we asked you where this team ranked in terms of points allowed under "the hooded sweatshirt," where would you rank it? Top 10? Top 5? Top 3? How about #1? Yes- it's his best defense ever, allowing just 14.8 ppg. That's better than every other team this year except Baltimore (yes, better than Chicago). They say defense wins championships, right? Consider that the last time the Patriots had this type of defense (allowed 14.8 also in 2003), they won the Super Bowl. These two teams split their games this year, but statistically New England dominated both. The 17-14 loss to the Jets saw New England out-gain the Jets by 100 yds, pile up more first downs, and garner a punting distance advantage. But they lost the all important turnover battle 3-1, which led to the Jets victory. The Pats beat the Jets in New York, in a game that wasn't nearly as close as the final score. New England led 24-0 midway through the 3rd quarter and the Jets could do nothing until the Pats laid down. They dominated again in this one, getting more first downs, more yards, better punting yards. They even survived a -1 turnover margin. The New York win vs. New England (in which they were dominated statistically) was the only playoff team the Jets beat all season. They are going to find out here that playing in New England in January is a completely different story. The Pats are 8-0 here since 1985, and have given up a total of 59 points in those 8 games (7.4 ppg). They have beaten teams by an average of 14 ppg and won 6 of 8 by double digits and 5 of 8 by 14 or more. We saw a good solid Jacksonville team stall this Jets offense completely and we saw a Bears defense shut this team out as well. When is the last time you saw a playoff team that was shutout twice during the season? New England held the Jets to absolutely nothing for about 37 minutes in New York, and that is the defense they will see in this playoff game. The last 8 playoff games played in New England have seen 5 visitors leave without getting into the end zone, and the Jets may face the same problem. Belichick, Brady and New England in a rout.