2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 03, 2004

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

03

New York at Miami

Sunday 10/03 04:15 PM Eastern

6 units on Miami +6 (-110) (risk 6 to return 11.45)  RESULT: loss

6 units on Miami +230 (moneyline) (risk 6 to return 19.8)  RESULT: loss

2-0 meets 0-3. Time for both of those zeros to turn into ones. Miami is desperate for a win and as such, Dave Wannstedt made the right decision and went back to Jay Fiedler. He is better than Feely who managed a 57.2 passer rating since replacing Fiedler in the first game. The Dolphins have clearly had trouble on offense but their defense is great (ranked 5th in the league). NY's strength has been offense (ranked 3rd). In a matchup of strong offense vs. stifling defense, it usually makes sense to side with defense in the NFL (remember the Super Bowl two years ago with #1 vs. #1?). The lack of success for teams like Miami usually doesn't continue for this long. Yes, they are struggling without Ricky Williams but this is the NFL where parity rules. Even struggling teams can win on any given Sunday. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that have scored 17 or less points in three straight games and are averaging under two touchdowns per game cover the spread three quarters of the time in their next outing. Also, home dogs with a terrible record following 3 consecutive losses cover the spread 67% of the time. The Dolphins need this one to salvage their season. I belive they pull together and pull out the must-win at home against a team that can't help but be underestimating them. Three units on Miami to cover and three more on them to win.

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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