2008 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 22, 2008

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

22

New York at Los Angeles

Monday 09/22 08:35 PM Eastern

2 units on Los Angeles -8 (-110) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: WIN

There is certainly something to be said when the general public, which is favorite happy, lines up on an underdog. That is the case in this one and why not? The Chargers look like they couldn't stop any one defensively, Shawne Merriman is gone for the season, and they are more than a TD favorite. It  looks like the All-time sucker bet to me. The Chargers gave up 39 to the Broncos, and were hosed by a bad call that cost them the win. Just in case you haven't been looking the 39 they gave up to the Broncos is now what they are averaging through three games. So I don't hold that performance against the Chargers. They lost to a rejuvenated Panthers’ team and Jake Delhomme, who is now 22-4 ATS as a dog in his career. That loss was also one play away from a win. The Jets meanwhile are just 5-15 in their last 20 games with three wins against Miami and the only other two came in OT. Favre creates an illusion that this is a better football team than it is, but the Jets are big dogs because the oddsmakers are with this understanding. Favre has been sacked five times already, and the Jets play calling has already come under fan scrutiny as the pass offense dinks and dunks with nothing down field. It is what Favre is best suited for, but the lack of success will lead to opening up more. The offensive line isn't good at holding off the rush - and that's when Favre starts making mistakes. The TD pass he threw against the Dolphins was basically a pressure-induced jump ball and the Jets got lucky. This has already happened more than once this season and his luck will even out long-term. Phil Rivers has been deadly in his first two games, and he has the corps of receivers to exploit the Jets big here. The Chargers are an angry team, backed against the wall at 0-2, playing at home on a Monday night and I think they will get the job done in this one.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Jets 7 7 0 15 29
Chargers 10 21 7 10 48

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