New York at Indianapolis

New York has had a brutal schedule, losing to the Bills and last year's NFC champ, the 49ers. They've covered four of their last five as a dog and NFL favorites like the Colts are 32-69 ATS off a home win in September games. The Jets have talent all over the defense and will get much better. DC Gregg Williams is very good at adjustments and likes to bring the blitz, which will help rattle Colts QB Philip Rivers, who already has more picks (3) than TDs (2). The Colts are a huge favorite but are no NFL powerhouse, splitting their first two games. They are outscoring opponents 24-19 on the young season. NFL home favorites that had a losing record the previous season are 93-155 ATS in conference games. The Jets are 4-1 SU/ATS the last five meetings and match up well, so back the big dog in a competitive game. Play New York.