2010 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 17, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

17

New York at Denver

Sunday 10/17 04:05 PM Eastern

4 units on Denver PICK () (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: LOSS

Last week there was a very "obvious" bet on the board - how could you not take the Packers at just -2.5 over the Redskins? How did that work out for Green Bay? We were on Washington in that one. This week there's another very obvious one. How can you not back the mighty Jets (the best team in the league according to many people) at just -3 over the lowly 2-3 Broncos? Last week the line begged you to take the Packers as a small favorite and we see the same thing here. Beware the call of the siren! The public isn't heeding this warning, lining up 3-to-1 on New York. The Jets are off to a big start, and a big Monday Night football win. But the injury issues on the defensive side are taking their toll. The Jets have done a great job against the run, but they are getting torched in their secondary and, having Darelle Revis ailing just isn't helping matters. The Jets are ranked just 23rd in the league against the pass, allowing 235 yards per game. That plays right into Denver's strength, as Kyle Orton is having a huge year. Orton has thrown for over 1,700 yards already. To put that in perspective, at this pace he would shatter Dan Marino's single season record of 5,084 yards. While inexperienced quarterbacks can get in trouble against a blitzing Jets team, but experienced calm QBs can find the open man one-on-one. The Broncos also may get a boost having Knowshon Moreno back in the backfield. Mark Sanchez has done an excellent job running the Jets offense as he is yet to throw an interception through five weeks. The Jets are content to run the ball and Sanchez is making a lot of safe throws resulting in just six yards per pass attempt. Sooner or later the teams are going to start putting eight in the box and daring the Jets to take chances and that is where Sanchez has typically gotten into trouble. The Broncos are rarely a home underdog and usually rise to the occasion in this situation as they own a 9-4-1 ATS mark as a home dog. In their last 62 home games vs. winning teams, Denver is 40-22 ATS. That includes a 10-2 ATS mark vs. teams like the Jets that have outscored their competition by 10+ ppg. Yes, the Jets are very very good. But this is a bad spot for them and the line is telling us something. If you can get +3.5 at -120 odds I recommend that. If not, you'll get +3 at even odds.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Jets 0 7 3 14 24
Broncos 0 10 7 3 20

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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