2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

November 17, 2011

17

New York at Denver

Thursday 11/17 08:20 PM Eastern

2 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

2 units on New York PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: loss

Over the past couple of years the New York Jets have gotten the reputation for being a defensive team. That label started back in 2009-10 when the Jets allowed a stingy 14.8 points per game. Last year some of that tough defense eroded away as the Jets allowed 19 ppg, and so far this year they are allowing 22.2 ppg. The defense is now ranked No. 8 in the league in yards per game, but is allowing that 22 points per contest. At the same time the Jets’ offense has been improving over the last three years, scoring more with each season. In 2001 they are averaging 23.9 ppg and tonight they get a Denver defense that is allowing 360 yards per game and is ranked fourth worst in points per game allowed. Denver has won three of four with Tim Tebow at QB, but the wins have come against Oakland (without their opening-day starting QB), Kansas City and Miami. Those include some of the absolute worst teams in the NFL, while the Jets are near the top. When the Broncos faced a good team at home they were beaten by the Lions by 35 points. The Jets will be ready for Denver's run-happy offense, and they have the personnel (unlike the Cheifs) to stop it. This has been the sweet spot line for the Jets who are 6-1 ATS in their last seven as a favorite from -3.5 to -10 points. Inexplicably you'll still hear some commentators talk about a home-field edge for Denver. But, the Broncos are well past the Elway era when they dominated at home as they are now 7-19-2 ATS in their last 28 home games. Their inconsistent play has left them at 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 after an ATS win. The oddsmakers still consider the Jets defense-first, but they actually 29-17 to the OVER under Rex Ryan. They are 7-0 to the OVER in their last seven on grass, as well as 20-7 to the OVER in their last 27 overall. The Broncos’ shaky defense has led them to a 12-2 OVER mark in their last 14 at home and 22-8 to the OVER in their last 30 games overall. Since last season, Denver is 9-1 OVER when facing a winning team. This one belongs to the Jets and the OVER.

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