2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 24, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
New York at Baltimore
Sunday 11/24 01:00 PM Eastern
1 unit on New York +4.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: loss
1 unit on Game Total OVER 38 -105 (risk 1 to return 1) RESULT: loss
The defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens have really fallen off from their pedestal last season. It seems like they are in a dog fight just about every week. The Ravens' last seven games have been decided by 6 points or less, including six of those by 3 points or less. Despite the close games, they are coming up on the short side of them more often than not, as they sit at 4-6. This team lost a lot of key players from a year ago and Joe Flacco just isn't playing like he did to finish out last season. History is not on their side as they take the field against the New York Jets here, as all these close games are emotionally and physically draining. There have been just nine occasions where a team won in overtime two games back, then came back in their next game and lost in overtime. These tired and physically drained teams are 1-8 ATS to an average of -1.5 point favorite, winning just two outright. The bigger problem is that the drained defenses have allowed 36 or more points in four of the nine, and an average of 26.1 points per game. The Jets have been a great underdog this season, going 5-1 ATS as a dog of +3.5 or more. In their last three such games, they scored 26, 30 and 30 points. This is a bad spot for Baltimore and their defense, which is a good spot for the Jets and their offense. Under Rex Ryan, the Jets are 27-14 OVER in in road games, 16-7 OVER in games with a total in this range (35.5 to 42 points) and 14-5 OVER after scoring 14 or fewer points last game. Take the Jets and the OVER.
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