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2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 15, 2012

15

New York at Green Bay

Sunday 01/15 04:30 PM Eastern

2 units on New York (moneyline) (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

2 units on New York PICK () (risk 2 to return 2)  RESULT: win

3 units on Game Total OVER PICK (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: win

After a few seasons of fading down the stretch, the New York Giants have regained their form, winning three straight and four of their last five. The ugly part of the season for the G-Men was weeks 10 through 13 in which they lost four straight. But let's look who they played in that stretch. Three of those four games came against teams that are still playing football right now: San Francisco, New Orleans and Green Bay! So what at the time looked very bad now looks somwhat understandable. In the first Green Bay game, New York covered the spread and had a legitimate shot to win the game outright. Right now the Giants are playing their best ball of the season, thanks in part to Brandon Jacobs who has regained his old form, and Eli Manning who is second in the league in 4th Quarter QB rating. The Packers are no secret. They score a ton of points week in and week out. But the big problem for this team is that their defense actually allows more yards than the high powered offense generates! That's right - the Packers were outgained on the season. As I wrote back in early December before they lost to the Chiefs, Green Bay is not as good as most people think. The offense is amazing but the defense is bad and the Packers have been the recipient of a lot of good luck in the turnover department (which has covered up how bad the defense really is). So here we have the worst defense statistically in the league laying big wood at home vs. a team that has resolved some of their defensive flaws. The Giants were burned for 122 points over a three week period in weeks 12-14 but have regrouped to allow just 53 total in their last four. The Packers defense is a high-risk, high-reward unit. They have intercepted a ridiculous 85 passes the last three years including 31 this year. As such, this game will likely come down to Eli Manning playing mistake free football. And on that front, the signs are encouraging. Manning threw ten interceptions over a seven game period, but just six in his other nine games. And most recently, he has thrown just one pick in his last three games. This is reminiscent of 2007/08 when a "mediocre" regular-season Giants team got really hot at the right time and won the Super Bowl. The Packers are going to get their points, but so are the Giants who put up 35 and 450 yards in the first meeting. Without a Clay Matthews pick-six in that game, the Giants win. New York is 37-17-2 ATS after going for 150+ on the ground and are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six on the playoff road. Winning on the road is difficult but there's few as good as Tom Coughlin. During his tenure, the Giants are 40-24 ATS on the road and they are especially adept at taking advantage of bad defenses (12-4 ATS on the road vs. teams that allow 350+ yards per game). In addition, the Coughlin-led Giants are 13-5 ATS revenging a home loss. They are also 44-30 ATS after a win including 15-6 ATS following a double-digit win. The Packers are an amazing 27-11 to the OVER in their last 38 at home and the last four in this series have all topped the total. Over the past three seasons, New York is 17-7 to the OVER when facing good passing teams like Green Bay (those completing over 60% of their passes). If the opponent completes 64%+, that figure goes to 9-1 OVER. Meanwhile, Green Bay is 8-1 OVER the past two seasons vs. teams like NY that average 7+ yards per pass attempt. Under Tom Coughlin, the Giants are 8-1 OVER when facing high-scoring teams (those that average over 28 points per game). Seven of the eight games played in this stadium this season have sailed OVER the total. Play on New York and the OVER here.

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