New York at Dallas

Sometimes in sports it is hard to let go of what happened the previous year and the perception of a team vs. the current reality. The New York Giants opened the season 5-0 a year ago, but that, along with their 2008 Super Bowl win, is now a distant memory. What is remembered is how the G-Men finished last season (3-8) and how they started this season (1-2). In the early going this year, they looked absolutely horrible in a high-profile Sunday night national TV game vs. the Colts, losing 38-14. Then they followed that up with a 19-point loss to Tennessee. This all but solidified in the minds of the public that the Giants are a bad team. But something has happened the past three weeks, and it's gone a bit under the radar. New York has won three straight, outscoring their opposition 79-33. As far as the Cowboys go, bettors are reluctant to give up on this team. There are three teams everyone seems to be waiting for every week to start winning: San Diego, Minnesota and Dallas. Unfortunately for backers of these teams, these teams keep finding ways to lose. San Diego and Minnesota both lost again yesterday to drop to 2-5. The Cowboys sit at 1-4, and as long as Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett are calling the shots, this team has the capability to underachieve every single game. The Cowboys have three very high-quality running backs, but choose to throw the ball two out of every three plays. Although Tony Romo is having a decent year, it still comes with the same mistakes we have seen in the past as he has thrown seven INTs already. This pass-happy offense plays right into the hands of the Giants defense which ranks No. 2 in the league in pass defense. Under Wade Phillips, the Cowboys are just 1-8 ATS vs. great pass defenses (those allowing under 5.8 yards per pass). There will be times this season to back the Cowboys, but laying more than a field goal vs. a team that is hot is not the spot. The Giants are in their sweet spot as they are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 after rushing for 150+ in their previous game. They are also 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road and 33-18 ATS on the road overall under Tom Coughlin. The Giants are also 44-17 ATS when facing a good quarterback (those completing 61%+) and on the road vs. excellent QBs (64%+ completion rate), they have covered 17 of their last 23.  They have also covered four of the last five vs. the Cowboys. If Dallas wins this game, it will be due to running the ball - a lot. The problem is we can't trust them to do that. I like the Giants plus the points here.