2007 Season NFL Football Past Picks
January 13, 2008
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
New York at Dallas
Sunday 01/13 04:30 PM Eastern
4 units on Dallas -285 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: loss
4 units on Dallas -7 (-110) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: loss
This is an excellent opportunity, and presents one of the best values on the board this weekend. Since the current NFL playoff format went into effect in 1994, any visiting team in this round that has 10 or less regular season wins is just 2-30 against the moneyline! That is 15 to 1 odds and equates to a moneyline of -2400. The actual moneyline for this game (-330) equates to an expected win rate of 77%. So, we have a 96% expected payoff for the "cost" of an 77% winner. Another way to look at this is to say that we are laying -330 on something that has a fair price of -2400.
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