2011 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 30, 2011
New Orleans at St. Louis
Sunday 10/30 01:00 PM Eastern
2 units on St. Louis PICK () (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: win
2 units on Game Total UNDER PICK (risk 2 to return 2) RESULT: loss
The New Orleans Saints are off their biggest win (measured by margin) in team history. And, they did it before a national TV audience, defeating a winless Colts team 62-7. They are now installed as a two TD favorite on the road and they face the Rams who are winless and have scored all of 27 points the last four weeks, so this one is easy right? The public at over 80% thinks so. But hold on. Two touchdowns on the road? That's a tall order. Winless teams from Week 8 historically cover at a 67% clip because the oddsmakers know what team the public is on, and the lines are dramatically inflated. The Saints are far from automatic. When they are good like last Sunday Night they get your attention. It's also easy for them to let down a bit after such a perfect performance, now facing an awful team. Don't forget that Drew Brees has thrown 30 INTs in his last 23 starts. The Saints are also 3-10 ATS in their last 13 vs. a team with a losing record, and have the propensity to be a no-show in this type of game. Take the big home dog. Also take the UNDER here. It would not surprise me to see New Orleans' offense a bit lackluster here after crusing last week. The Rams have gone 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four as a dog of +10.5 or more, and are now also 15-5-2 to the UNDER in their last 22 following an ATS loss. The Rams are 10-4-1 to the UNDER in their last 15 games when they have allowed 150+ on the ground. They are also a perfect 8-0 UNDER the past three seasons under Steve Spagnuolo when facing a good team (.600 or better). This one goes to St. Louis and the UNDER.