2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

September 19, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 12, 2012 at 7:54PM ET.


New Orleans at New York

Monday 09/19 07:30 PM Eastern

2 units on New Orleans +3.5 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: LOSS

We got the win on New Orleans as a big underdog last week. We knew that their emotions (and a solid team) would help them to a victory. Will those emotions spill over into this week? You bet! They are still "playing for everyone in New Orleans" and they will enjoy some crowd support tonight from New Yorkers who still remember 9-11. My computer matchup predicts a very close game here and my analysis tells me the same thing. Getting 3.5 points in that situation is a gift. I capped this game as a road game for New Orleans, which in effect it is. I think the public is underestimating this Saints team. Did you see what Carolina did to the defending Super Bowl champs yesterday? I did. And New Orleans beat Carolina one week ago in Carolina. I also think that the Public is overreacting to New York's blowout win over Arizona last week. The Giants dominated on way to a 42-19 victory. That kind of win is what has pushed this off the magic numnber of -3 to -3.5. What most people didn't see is that the Giants trailed that game 13-7 at half. They got help from their special teams who returned two kicks for touchdowns. The Giants would have won that game without those returns but they inflated the score, and in the process, the value of the Giants in the public's eye. New Orleans is 16-6 on the road off a win over a division rival since 1992. And, underdogs off a road win cover the spread about two thirds of the time vs. favorites off a home win. Also, week 2 road teams fare very well against teams off a non-divisional home game. New Orleans has the talent to play with New York. And, I think for at least one more week, the emotional edge and motivation which can't be underestimated. We'll back the Saints here plus the 3.5 points for two stars.



Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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