2003 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 05, 2003
This pick was released to clients on August 14, 2012 at 12:44AM ET.
New Orleans at Carolina
Sunday 10/05 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Carolina -6.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: LOSS
I remember the first matchup between these two teams last year well (I picked Carolina). The Panthers were up 24-20 with less than 1:00 minute to go as +4.5 point underdog. New Orleans scored with 31 seconds to go but Carolina was still covering the spread. Carolina QB Rodney Peete fumbled the ball on the final play of the game as New Orleans ran it in to cover the spread. I was peeved. Carolina knows they should have won that game. They out-gained New Orleans by over 150 yards and dominated nearly the entire game. The Panthers also dominated the Saints in the second meeting last year, knocking NO out of the playoffs. The Saints just aren’t the same team this year as last. They are missing several key defensive starters and are allowing 110+ rushing yards per game. Carolina RB Stephen Davis will have a big day against the Saints. New Orleans is still reeling from the Sunday night 55 point shredding by Peyton Manning and company. The Panthers won’t let down as they remember their horrible meltdown following a 4-0 start last year. Here’s a stat for you: Carolina is averaging 162 yards per game on the ground while New Orleans is averaging 96. Carolina also qualifies for a 62-25 ATS historical angle involving home teams versus opponents that were home dogs last game. My Matchup Power Ratings tell us that Carolina should probably be closer to a two-touchdown favorite in this one based on statistics through four games. I don’t see any reason to go against that.