New England vs. Seattle

Here's a prop bet that provides even further value on betting the discrepancy between scoring early in the game vs. late. In the early going of Super Bowl games, teams are trying to avoid mistakes and taking a conservative approach. By the end of the game, the handcuffs are off and teams are pulling out all the stops. Nothing is left back. In 2014, an average of 9.1 points was scored in the first quarter of games. In the fourth quarter, 12.4 points were scored on average. Again, if we look at Super Bowl history, the discrepancy gets even more pronounced for the above-stated reasons. In 48 Super Bowls, the first-quarter average is 8.40 compared to 13.13 in the fourth quarter. That's a massive 56% difference. And, recent Super Bowls (the last 24 years) have seen an even wider discrepancy: 9.3 vs. 15.8 - a 70% difference! In 48 Super Bowls, the 4th quarter points have surpassed the 1st quarter points 69% of the time (31-14-3). But, in recent years, the difference in first-quarter and fourth-quarter points has diverged even more. In the last sixteen years, we have seen the 4th quarter exceed the 1st quarter at a rate of 13-3 (81%). Fair odds on an 81% bet are -425. Yet, we get odds of -265, providing great value!