2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks

February 01, 2015

This pick was released to clients on January 28, 2015 at 3:50PM ET.

01

New England vs. Seattle

Sunday 02/01 06:30 PM Eastern

2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 2 to return 4.2)  RESULT: WIN

In his career, Patriots place kicker Stephen Gostowski has kicked 244 field goals with 48 of them coming at 45+ yards. That's an average of just 19.6%. His average field goal made is from a distance of 34.3 yards. Seattle's Steven Haushka has kicked 24 career field goals of 45+yards out of 130 total (18.5%). His average made field goal is 35.5 yards. So why do we feel that there's much of a chance of a 45+ yard field goal in this game? Out of 48 Super Bowls, there have only been 13 games with field goals of 45+ yards (27.1%). Fair odds on a 27.1% bet are -270. But has this changed recently? Maybe with the recent rule changes that favor offense, this percentage has gone up. Actually it's just the opposite. Over the past ten Super Bowls, only two have seen a field goal made at 45+ yards. Since Super Bowl 41, seven of eight Super Bowls have had the longest field goal come in UNDER 45 yards. So, we have kickers that kick 45+ yard field goals less than 20% of the time and a Super Bowl history that shows this rarely happens. Take the UNDER on this prop.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Patriots 0 14 0 14 28
Seahawks 0 14 10 0 24

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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