These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 27, 2015 at 4:51PM ET.
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New England vs. Seattle

February 1, 2015
img6:30 PM Eastern

In 2014, the average number of field goals per game was 3.22. New England averaged two made field goals per game while Seattle averaged 1.8 per game. So this total is about right based on those numbers. But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal! Teams are generally less conservative overall in the big game when all is said and done. it's all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the table. If a team is ahead, they don't want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If they are behind, they are not playing to keep it close - they are playing to win the game. So, there are fewer field goals in the big game than in your average NFL game. Through the first 48 Super Bowls, there have only been 124 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.58 per game. In only 12 of the 48 games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 25% and fair odds on that are -300. Yet, we get -130 odds here. This bet should come through about 75% of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop.

2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 -130 (risk 2 to return 3.54)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Seattle +2 (-115) (risk 1.5 to return 2.8)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Game Total UNDER 48 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on 1st ¼ UNDER 9.5 +100 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Fourth Quarter OVER 13.5 -110 (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th +160 (risk 1 to return 2.6)
Result:
LOSS
2 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th vs. 1st -265 (risk 2 to return 2.75)
Result:
WIN
2.5 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT -125 (risk 2.5 to return 4.5)
Result:
LOSS
2.5 units on Scoreless Quarter = NO -335 (risk 2.5 to return 3.25)
Result:
LOSS
1 unit on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES -165 (risk 1 to return 1.61)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Touchdown OVER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 1.5 to return 3.15)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Either Team Scores 3 Straight Unanswered = YES -205 (risk 1.5 to return 2.23)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 44.5 yards +110 (risk 2 to return 4.2)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Total Penalties UNDER 15 -225 (risk 2 to return 2.89)
Result:
WIN
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
New England Patriots img
0
14
0
14
28
Seattle Seahawks
0
14
10
0
24
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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