When you think about the end of a football game, what comes to mind first? If you are like most people, you thought of the winning team taking a knee in victory formation, or running out the clock by running the ball. This can often take a long time, what seems like an eternity. So how likely is it that a team scores in the waning moments of a Super Bowl? Turns out it's quite often. In 52 Super Bowls, a team has scored in the final 3:30 of the game 32 times. That comes out to 61.5% of the time. Fair odds on that kind of bet are -160 which is right about where these odds are set. Good job Bookmaker's! But hold the presses. If we look deeper we find out that things have changed dramatically. Through Super Bowl 27, there were only 12 instances of this happening. But, in the last 25 years, it has happened 20 times for an 80% win rate. Fair odds on a bet like that are -400. With these high-scoring teams, I'm all over that. Take the YES.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2019 at 4:21PM ET.
New England vs. Los Angeles
February 3, 2019
1 unit on Longest Touchdown OVER 49.5 yards (+115) (risk 1 to return 3.15)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1 unit on New England -132 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1.76)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (-165) (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (-135) (risk 2 to return 3.48)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14 (-140) (risk 2 to return 3.43)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (+190) (risk 1.5 to return 4.35)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (-165) (risk 2 to return 5.21)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (-180) (risk 1.5 to return 3.83)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (-165) (risk 1.5 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-115) (risk 2 to return 5.74)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 4.36)
Result:
LOSS
LOSS
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