These Pro Picks were released to clients on January 29, 2019 at 4:21PM ET.
img NFL

New England vs. Los Angeles

February 3, 2019
img6:30 PM Eastern

In 2018, the average number of field goals per game was 3.12. New England averaged just 1.7 field goals made per game while the Rams kicked 2.3 per game. But, this is not just any game. This is the big game and the Super Bowl is a different animal. Teams are generally less conservative overall in the Super Bowl when all is said and done. It's all or nothing. The coaches do not want to leave anything on the field. If a team is ahead, they don't want to give their opponent any chance of coming back. If a team is behind, they are not playing to keep it close - they are playing to win the game, no matter what. So, there are fewer field goals in the Super Bowl than in your average NFL game. Through the first 52 Super Bowls, there have only been 136 made field goals which comes to an average of 2.62 per game. That's nearly 25% less than the regular-season average. In only 14 of the 52 Super Bowl games have more than three field goals been made! That comes to just 27% and fair odds on that are -275. Yet, we get -115 odds here. This bet should come through about three quarters of the time. Take the UNDER on this prop.

2 units on Team to Score First Wins the Game = YES (-165) (risk 2 to return 5.21)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on New England -132 (moneyline) (risk 1 to return 1.76)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Highest-Scoring Half = 2nd+OT (-165) (risk 2 to return 3.21)
Result:
WIN
2 units on First Quarter UNDER 10.5 (-135) (risk 2 to return 3.48)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Fourth Quarter OVER 14 (-140) (risk 2 to return 3.43)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Highest-Scoring Quarter = 4th (+190) (risk 1.5 to return 4.35)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Team to Score Last Wins the Game = YES (-180) (risk 1.5 to return 3.83)
Result:
WIN
1 unit on Longest Touchdown OVER 49.5 yards (+115) (risk 1 to return 3.15)
Result:
LOSS
1.5 units on Score in Last 3:30 of 4th Quarter = YES (-165) (risk 1.5 to return 3.9)
Result:
WIN
2 units on Total Field Goals UNDER 3.5 (-115) (risk 2 to return 5.74)
Result:
WIN
1.5 units on Longest Field Goal UNDER 47.5 yards (-110) (risk 1.5 to return 4.36)
Result:
LOSS
FINAL
1
2
3
4
F
New England Patriots img
0
3
0
10
13
Los Angeles Rams
0
0
3
0
3
consensus consensus
odds odds
 
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