2005 Season NFL Football Past Picks

December 26, 2005

This pick was released to clients on July 25, 2012 at 7:30PM ET.

26

New England at New York

Monday 12/26 09:00 PM Eastern

2 units on New England -7 (-110) (risk 2 to return 3.82)  RESULT: WIN

Somehow this line opened at -4 and it seemed very weird to me. Low and behold, it has move to -7 and could climb higher throughout the day on Monday. This line is now about right. Anyone who got it at less than a touchdown got a gift. Maybe this is a trap but if it is, I'm stating for the record right now - I'm falling for it. How can the Patriots, playing like they have been recently, not blowout a decimated and terrible Jets team? Sure, it's Monday night in New York. But, will that rattle Tom Brady? Get real. This Patriots club is gelling right now. They've won 3 straight and 5 of 6 games to move to 9-5 on the season. Their defense which was downright horrible early on has found their rythmn. Over their last three games the Pats have allowed 10 points - TOTAL! New York is in trouble here folks as they have the fourth worst offense as measured by yards and the worst when it comes to points. New England has clinched the AFC East but they won't be resting people tonight until/unless this game gets out of hand. Belichick's style is to keep the momentum by playing starters most of the game. "We're treating this like a regular week," Belichick said this week. "Put it in the headline. Bold type. It's a regular week. The players know that, the staff knows it." New York is on their third string quarterback. They've lost their starting running back (Curtis Martin), their starting center (Kevin Mawae), their right tackle, tight end, a wide receiver and a starting outside linebacker. Think they have a shot here against the world champs who are finally playing like champs? I don't. New England is one of the few teams that is very unlikely to suffer a letdown. They are just too well coached off (Belichick) and on (Brady, Bruschi) the field. They need to keep playing hard and keep winning to keep their momentum rolling into the playoffs. They have 4th seed locked up but still have a shot at improving to 3rd. Brady picks apart poor pass defenses like New York's. The Pats are 8-1 ATS over the past three seasons late in the season vs. teams that allow 61% or worse completion percentage. I know - what about a letdown after last week's 28-0 thrashing of Tampa Bay? Again, New England is not as susceptible to letdowns as other teams. Need proof? They are 9-2 ATS off a win by 14 or more points and 9-1 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last game over the last 2 seasons. Get this in before the line jumps higher. Two stars on New England minus the touchdown.

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