New England at Miami

Talk about betting line overreactions! It's only Week 2 and Miami is a three-touchdown home underdog? This is the first road game for New England, and it's a rivalry game. It's always a tough matchup for the Patriots to play in Miami's humid conditions, especially in September. New England won the Super Bowl last season, but still lost in Miami, 34-33, allowing 189 yards rushing. The Dolphins ran for nine yards per carry! Meanwhile the Patriots ran for just 77 yards, 2.6 ypc, and wilted in the Florida sun, scoring only six points after halftime. And two years ago they lost 27-20 in Miami as a favorite as Tom Brady was picked off twice and the Dolphins ran for 120 yards, while New England ran for 25 yards on 10 carries at 2.5 ypc. The Patriots are 3-7 ATS on the road against a team with a losing home record. Miami got embarrassed at home last week by the Ravens and the new coaching staff has ample motivation if they want to keep their jobs. The Dolphins are 7-2 ATS at home versus a team with a winning road record and the Patriots are on a 1-6 ATS run at Miami. Play Miami.