It's always easy to overreact after a bad season opener. Still, Miami was downright awful while losing 33-8 to the Colts, making it seem unlikely the Dolphins can make all the necessary adjustments in just one week. The Dolphins totaled just 43 yards in the first half, while Tua Tagovailoa threw for 114 yards, but also had two interceptions and lost a fumble. Miami is 0-5 ATS in its past five September games, 2-5 ATS in its past seven games overall. New England, at least, was competitive against Las Vegas before losing 20-13. Drake Maye was 30 of 46 for 287 yards in his first game under offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels. Miami has gone OVER six straight home games and four of five overall against the AFC East. The Patriots have gone OVER six of their past eight and four in a row after totaling more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Miami did have a bright spot in De'Von Achane, who rushed for 75 yards and a TD on only 10 carries. The Dolphins will look to him more this week in an effort to put more points on the board, but it won't be enough if Tagovailoa continues his erratic play. Take the Patriots and the OVER.
These Pro Picks were released to clients on September 12, 2025 at 9:49AM ET.
New England at Miami
September 14, 2025
1 unit on New England +2.5 (-110) (risk 1 to return 1.91)
Result:
WIN
WIN
1 unit on Game Total OVER 42.5 -115 (risk 1 to return 1.87)
Result:
WIN
WIN
TAKE THE GUESSWORK OUT OF SPORTS BETTING
Get free NFL Picks
I pore over the data, injuries, news, and odds every morning.
You get the best bets delivered to your inbox.