2014 Season NFL Football Past Picks
September 07, 2014
This pick was released to clients on September 05, 2014 at 4:18PM ET.
New England at Miami
Sunday 09/07 01:00 PM Eastern
0.5 unit on Game Total UNDER 47 -110 (risk 0.5 to return 0.95) RESULT: LOSS
The Patriots like the hurry up offense, but they will be playing on grass here in Miami, which isn't as strong for uptempo attacks (just look at the Saints when they play on the road on grass). The Pats have offensive line concerns as Tom Brady was sacked the most times last year since his first full year as starting QB (2001). And they just traded offensive tackle Logan Mankins, a mainstay on the line the last eight seasons. They face a very strong Miami pass rush in this game so I expect a few miscues early here. The UNDER is 5-1 in the Patriots last six games on grass and 6-2 UNDER in their last eight division games. Miami completely overhauled their offensive line from a year ago and they face a talented and deep Patriots defense, the best one they've had since 2007. Miami is 10-1 to the UNDER in their last 11 division games and since the arrival of Joe Philbin in Miami, this team is 16-5 UNDER vs. conference opponents. This is a key divisional game and the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these rivals. Take this game UNDER the total.
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