2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

January 03, 2010

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

03

New England at Houston

Sunday 01/03 01:00 PM Eastern

4 units on New England +9 (-130) (risk 4 to return 4)  RESULT: WIN

I’m kind of surprised to see this line as the oddsmakers are speculating that the Patriots, like the Colts, will lie down here. What they are missing is that it simply isn't coach Belichick's style. He has already said his starters will be on the field for this one. The Pats have been in this spot before. Going back to the 2005 finale vs. a Miami team that had won six straight games and fighting for a playoff spot, the Pats lost by just 2 points. The next year New England played Tennessee in a game that the Titans needed to secure a playoff spot, and the Pats starters played three quarters in a 17-point Patriots win. The Pats, over the last 18 years, are the NFL's second best team in scoring margin at +5.3 points per game. That has made them the No. 1 team in the NFL ATS with a 12-5-1 mark in the season finale, including 8-2 straight up in the last decade. Six of those games show margins of victory by 13 points or more, and the two losses are by a combined 5 points! This isn't a no-show team under Belichick, and this is a no-show expected line which is chock full of value! The Patriots are 22-5 ATS in their ast 27 games vs. teams at .510 to .600 and 24-10 ATS in their last 34 vs. teamst hat pass for 260+ yards per game. New England gets the call here.

FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q FINAL
Patriots 7 6 7 7 27
Texans 7 6 0 21 34

NFL

 

Last 20.4 years

Wins Losses Units
2443 2157 +189.24

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