2009 Season NFL Football Past Picks

October 11, 2009

This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.

11

New England at Denver

Sunday 10/11 04:15 PM Eastern

3 units on Denver +3.5 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)  RESULT: WIN

The Denver Broncos were expected to be a non-factor this season. The pundits had them winning anywhere from 2 to 5 games all season. Their terrible preseason play (lost first three games by combined score of 46-71) and the Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall debacles only fueled the fire. They are no doubt the biggest surprise in the early going of the 2009 NFL season as they enter here at 4-0. They remain unproven in the minds of many given the fact that they stole a win from Cininnati in game one and have played poor or mediocre competition. There are still few believers out there given the fact that they are a 4-0 team posted as a home underdog, and over 75% of the public is fading them. Even the big home win over the Cowboys last week has failed to legitimize this team in the public eye. But I believe it's time to give this team their due. The Broncos rank #2 in the NFL in yards allowed per game and #1 in points allowed. After four games, despite the questionable competition, the chances of this being a fluke are slim. It's time to change the perception of this team. The Patriots are off a big game vs. the Ravens at home and this team is not what it was two years ago with Brady under center. That team was putting up 35+ points every single game, while this one has yet to reach 28 even once. The Broncos bring in a rushing attack that has churned up 4.7 yards per carry and it has kept the pressure off Kyle Orton, who has a mistake-free 97.7 QB rating with five TD's and no picks. That trumps Tom Brady's performance this season who owns a pedestrian 83.7 rating having thrown four TD's with two picks. The Pats are allowing 4.5 yards per carry and that should give plenty of room to Correll Buckhalter and Knowshon Moreno to do some damage. These two have combined for 516 yards on 97 carries (5.3 ypc). The Broncos defense has gotten pressure on everyone, having already recorded 15 sacks. So Brady, who simply hasn't been sharp and has not yet returned to form, will be under pressure especially with a feeble ground attack grabbing just 3.6 ypc. On top of it, McDaniels knows Belichick well and certainly wants this game vs. his old mentor. The Patriots have the name and reputation here, but the Broncos bring the better team at this point in the season and we are getting points on them at home. Since 1983, home teams in a matchup of two very good teams (.750+) coming off an upset underdog win are 23-4 ATS. I'm grabbing Denver in this one.
FINAL SCORE
TEAM 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q OT FINAL
Patriots 10 7 0 0 3 17
Broncos 0 7 3 7 0 20

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