2013 Season NFL Football Past Picks
November 18, 2013
This pick was released to clients on December 31, 1969 at 9:00PM ET.
New England at Carolina
Monday 11/18 08:30 PM Eastern
0.5 unit on New England +3 (-105) (risk 0.5 to return 0.5) RESULT: loss
0.5 unit on Game Total OVER 45.5 -110 (risk 0.5 to return 0.5) RESULT: loss
The New England Patriots had to make do without many of their receiving weapons from a year ago to start the season. QB Tom Brady struggled trying to get the offense going, and he also had an injured hand that apparently was more troublesome than originally known. Things have changed dramatically. He now has a healthy Rob Gronkowski and Danny Amendola. He also should have Shane Vereen back and able to help. Remember Vereen has not suited up since running for 101 yards on 14 carries in the opener. He also caught seven balls coming out of the backfield. The Pats offense over the first five games produced just 19 ppg, but over the last four that has risen to 34.8 ppg. Carolina has a solid defense, but the offense is fairly pedestrian at 23.8 points per game. The Pats also get back their best DB here in Aqib Talib who will make Cam newton have to find a second option. The Brady and Belichick combo is 10-5 ATS on Monday night and 24-10 ATS when not having to lay a field goal or more. And, Brady is 8-1 straight up after a bye. Carolina is coming off a tough physical and emotional game, and young teams like this usually can't put together back-to-back great efforts in big games. Meanwhile New England has gotten healthy and have had two weeks to prepare for this one. Carolina will not be up to this challenge, and Brady and Belichick will. Take New England. Also take the OVER. The Pats offense is again clicking and Carolina's defense allows a horrible 65.9% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks. Brady has a long history of eating up such defenses and the Pats are 10-1 to the OVER the last three seasons vs. bad pass defenses (teams that allow 61%+ completions). Meanwhile, the Panthers are 10-2 OVER during that span when facing a winning team. Under Bill Belichick, New England is 62-47 OVER in road games and 35-24 OVER as an underdog. Take New England and the OVER here.
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