2004 Season NFL Football Past Picks
October 03, 2004
This pick was released to clients on July 10, 2012 at 3:22PM ET.
New England at Buffalo
Sunday 10/03 01:00 PM Eastern
4 units on Buffalo +5.5 (-110) (risk 4 to return 7.64) RESULT: loss
4 units on Buffalo +220 (moneyline) (risk 4 to return 12.8) RESULT: loss
New England is a public favorite for obvious reasons. They have won two straight Super Bowls, won an incredible 17 straight and this week they are well rested and off a bye. Buffalo is looking no better than they did last year and most everyone has written off Drew Bledsoe as a has-been. But hold on. Guess where one of the Patriots' two losses was last season? You guessed it. Upstate New York. New England is within reach of the coveted NFL record 18-straight wins (shared by five teams). It is always about this time that teams get overconfident and fall on their face. New England's two wins this season haven't impressed. They pulled out a squeaker against Indianapolis in week 1 in which they gave up huge chunks of yardage on the ground and they won a sloppily played game against the Arizona Cardinals in week 2. Buffalo's defense can keep them in this one. It's ranked fourth in the league and has held each of its two opponents under two touchdowns. One of those teams, Oakland, has scored an average of 26 vs. other opponents. This defense is tough. Buffalo needs this game more and has had an extra week to prepare. Winless dogs off a bye cover the spread nearly 80% of the time. Medium-to-large dogs following two games in which their offense was anemic cover about three quarters of the time. The bottom line is this: on the surface, everything seems to point to an easy win for New England here and I can hear Joe Bettor saying "I can't believe this spread is only 5.5. I'd lay 10 points with New England on this one!" Yes, we're going against the obvious and taking Buffalo for two units to both cover the spread and win outright.